BMC Software (BMC) shares are lower today after Goldman Sachs analyst Sarah Friar cut her rating on the stock to Neutral from Buy. She trimmed her non-GAAP EPS estimates for the company’s March 2009 fiscal year to $2.08 from $2.10; for FY 2010 she goes to $2.39 from $2.40. Friar cut her price target on the stock to $37 from $41.

Friar says her value-centric thesis on the stock has been “temporarily weakened” by its recent deal to acquire BladeLogic (BLOG). “The formerly clear path to margin expansion has been delayed by dilution, the company has less cash for buybacks and the potential for upside to top-line estimates is somewhat muddied as Blade is incorporated,” she writes. “Thus, we feel the shares are likely to pause near-term.”

Friar also says that her “latest checks across the software group” raise increasing concerns about the delay or downsizing of large software projects, “where we believe BMC is exposed.”

Goldman replaced BMC on its “Americas Conviction Buy List” with CA (CA). Friar writes that CA’s restructuring remains “well on track,” with “a clear path to significant further margin upside.”

BMC today is down $1.76, or 5.4%, to $30.93. CA is up 7 cents at $23.31.