Cable stocks, which have dropped about 35% since last summer, could be headed for more rought times ahead. At least, that’s the opinion of UBS analyst John Hodluk, who yesterday picked up coverage of the cable and satellite TV stocks. He starts Comcast (CMCSA), Cablevision (CVC), Time Warner Cable (TWC) and Dish Network (DISH) with Neutral ratings; he launched DirecTV (DTV) with a Buy.

Hodulik thinks cable operators are heading for a slowdown in 2008 and 2009. His reasons:

  • Weaker consumer spending.
  • Slower penetration of advanced services.
  • Increased competition.

Hodulik thinks the Street may be under-estimating the potential impact on cable subscriber numbers from the rapid rollout of video services by Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T). He says the two telcos will double the reach of their video services this year to about 18% of homes passed, and to double again by the end of 2010. He expects cable to see a tripling of basic subscriber losses this year.

Meanwhile, he also thinks broadband growth will slow in the face of already high penetration rates and the current economic worries.

“While it is difficult to infer the expectations built into current stock prices, we avoid recommending stocks when we believe consensus estimates need to come down,” he writes. “Combining this with decelerating revenue growth, we do not believe the environment exists for multiple expansion despite the low valuations.”

As noted, the one exception to his negative stance is DirecTV, which he thinks could benefit from market share gains and potential restructuring.

One other thing: short-seller Jim Chanos thinks the stocks look like shorts, according to the AP.

In today’s trading:

  • Comcast is down 46 cents, or 2.6%, to $16.92.
  • Time Warner Cable is down 44 cents, or 1.8%, to $23.90.
  • Cablevision is down 56 cents, or 2.2%, to $24.69.
  • Dish Network is down 55 cents, or 1.9%, to $28.90.
  • DirecTV is down 22 cents, or 0.9%, to $23.10.
  • Not on the list, but also lower today are Charter (CHTR), off 8 cents, or 7.4%, to $1, and Mediacom (MCCC), down 19 cents, or 3.9%, to $4.71.