Intel Says Q1 Revenue Likely “Below Seasonal”
On the Intel (INTC) post-earnings conference call this afternoon, CFO Stacy Smith said the company’s first quarter revenue guidance suggests “below seasonal” results. The company is forecasting $9.4 billion to $10 billion in revenue, down from $10.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The midpoint of the range would be a drop of about 9.3% sequentially.
Smith says there are no issues with inventory; in fact, he says inventory is lower than he would like.
In response to a question, CEO Paul Otellini notes that European sales were up 22% sequentially. So far, he says, they have not seen significant signs of slowdown in Europe, or anywhere else for matter.
Asked about Intel’s PC unit outlook for 2008, Otellini said most analysts see low-double-digit PC unit growth, and he says the company is “building capacity plans around that.” He declined to say whether the company expects to take market share this year.
After hours, Intel is now down $3.24, or 14.3%, at $19.45.
I did not hear Stacy Smith say “below seasonal” Q1 revenue forecast but we can check the transcripts later today. Q1 would be down 9.3% QoQ which is about seasonal (usually down 7%-8% seasonal shift). The most important point was that CPU demand was good and constant throughout Q4 and remained so throughout the recent days in January, that no customers are reporting weakness in orders, and that inventory at Intel, in channel and at OEM’s is light. They said they are slightly conservative in view of macro-economic sentiment in Wall Street, but they themselves are not seeing weakness and definitely did not see double-ordering into the xmas period (ie not expecting overhang in Q1). Nor do they expect ASP declines for CPU’s in Q1 any different from Q4 (ASP’s they said were steady to firm in CPU’s in Q4). All looks rather positive to me, with the exceptoion of the NAND and NOR business.
Intel management made a poor presentation last night and shot themselves in the foot! They actually earned 40.5 to 41 cents beating the estimates, excluding items! The analysts looking to beat up the stock could not help but to push the knife deeper in !!!
The 2.5 to 3 cents short fall is for costs associated with divestiture on non-core business!!! The inventory problems/excuses that BAC and JPM analysts used to issue downgrades that killed the stock, is a fabrication, in fact the opposit is true, and the inventory levels are lower than normal!!!
This morning analysts on Bloomberg came to their defense. I can not believe the management’s presentation and how the market ganging up on a company that is making money!
If Intel’s investor only know how much money they have lost in IMFT subsidizing Micron.
Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written from Palo Alto, California by long-time Barron's West Coast Editor Eric J. Savitz. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields.
