nothing but negative news….this has been a terrible month

DO THEY WORK FOR ORACLE ?

Canaccord Wants to buy back RIMM after selling them at their highs. Old trick babe !

RIMM’s enterprise customers might upgrade their phones with RIMM’s lower price models to save money; putting pressure on RIMM’s ASPs.

RIMM remains a 77% commodity cyclical hardware business with rapid product cycles.

The problem that RIMM has is a huge amount of competition coming on line in 2009 and 2010. This is going to shrink hardware margins.

Therefore, RIMM doesn’t deserve a big multiple of earnings (for the years ending 2-09 and 2-10.)

I think that EPS in the year ending 2-09 will be higher than expected. About $4 a share. But I see these EPS declining after that.

I also think that the I-Phone will have much higher global unit sales in calendar year 2010 than RIMM.

Also, don’t count GOOG out. Phones based on their Linux based OS are likely to make a major play at enterprise in 2009.

NOK, MOT, and Samsung have some exciting products in the development pipeline.

All of this will lead to lower gross margins per handset for RIMM in calender year 2009 and 2010.

I think that APPL is cheaper than RIMM at current prices. (But even Apple is not cheap. Valuations for the whole group remain elevated.)

Anand,
Sorry to disagree with you, but RIMM has no comtetion at all. In Canada, carriers like Rodgers, Telus and Bell are not interested in the iphone, BUT they’re all doing business with RIMM. Also you seem to forget CHINA in your numbers…The formula for RIMM’s target is AAPL +$$$$$$

According to one study -the average lifespan of a cellular phone is 18 months and average user changes phone every 8 months. Just look at the numbers, pal. Unless one can do without a Blackberry. Also RIMM is in talks with China Mobile. The first shipment arrived in China at the end of 2007. Now they are waiting for the approval from the Chineses government. When done, RIM will enter the largest market in the world.

these guys talk about China like they live there. 99.9% of the people in China makes less than 500.00 USD per month. Nokia is king and average users have cheap phones with montly bill coming in below 10.00 USD per month. More people have mobile phone in China because they can’t afford a computer. Cell phone coverage is a joke unless you are in a major city.

There is a whole business built around shipping old CRT monitors to china for resell, cause thet can’t afford a LCD monitor.

all you mororns think that a $400 BB will sell like hot cakles.

Lance,
The Chinese are getting richer and they can afford more expensive phones sooner than your feeble mind can think !!
Even a 1% of the population will equal to massive sales figure……

http://www.teleclick.ca/2007/10/blackberry-maker-settles-stock-options-lawsuit-with-ontario-ironworkers/Did anyone and I do mean anyone bother to take the time to check out a so called investment firm that downgrades RIMM, yet has never ever OPINED on RIMM before, and at the same time holds a dramatic grudge…
See above link.
A Canadian Short is all they are with a GRUDGE!!!

Pullback possibleee at nice support level for RIMM at 85. I will be buyer when it is near 85. Short term pullback near 75 days EMA possible may not be straight down, but very likly to hit before resuming uptrend.

I thought RIMM’s strong proposition isn’t on the blackberry “handset”. Rather, it is their system support model for the enterprise users. This system took time to build/maintain. It is not what MOT or NOK can cook up overnight. iPhone targets the individual users. They are in different market segments, at least back in 2007. It could be a different landscape in 2009-10 timeframe, per Lance.

Be it in China or South America, RIMM’s target users again is not your $500-income locals. There are plenty of sophisticated enterprise users elsewhere in the world.

As far as Cannacord goes, I made all those bearish call last week. They are 10-days too late. Intel lost more than 20% in 3 days on two analysts calls. HPQ shed 15% in 3 trading session with NO news/downgrades. As an investor, warnings beforehand, not after the fact, would be more useful!

By the way, MSFT holds up pretty well in this tough tape. Any theory?

I have always lost $$ with MSFT, there are better plays. You could get couple of bucks move with stocks like ACH easy in a week.

Although Mr. Misek is warning short-term investors, the medium-to-long term story for Intrinsyc (ICS on the Toronto stock exchange) is compelling.
They have a highly versatile software product called “Soleus”. It is a
High-Level Operating System for mobile devices.
(www.intrinsyc.com)
Microsoft named Intrinsyc their 2007 Systems
Integrator of the Year.
Although the stock has had a great run from 0.40 to just over a buck, the best obviously lies ahead as royalty revenue begins to roll in during 2008. Well-respected analyst Peter Hodson has a $2.00 price target. Where else will you double your money in 2008?

Honest Trae,
Forget Cannacord, maybe they have been coached by Lance..
Concerning MSFT, I’d rather put my money on QCOM. Look at the volume in the last days, no news and they are bucking the trend…I think 2008 will be their year. Somebody knows something. Maybe a CASHBACK from NOK…You have to be patient and have the gutts…

Oh I forgot, concerning QCOM, maybe 1% of CHINA.

Misek can’t make up his mind on RIMM. Not too long ago he was telling you to buy the stock when it came down to $100, a few weeks later he’s telling you to sell the thing at $95? Plus this is the same guy who was telling clients to short Apple at $100!

Mr. Sandvine,
It’s not hard to understand:Misek was buing at 95 and selling at 100.Once you understood that, you do exactly the contrary, IF the fondamentals are still there and that’s the case with RIMM. RIMM is on the way for 140 and plus…

just read analysis of RIMM @UBS and at Smith Barney …. Reiterate their buys target prices of 155 and 140 respectively!!

Some target prices:
Goldman:147
Piper Jeffrey:137
RBC:140
Citigroup:140
Global Crown Capital:180
BMO:140
Citi Investment:140
Bear Stearns:150 to 170
Bank of America:146
Credit Suisse:160

Honest Trae, you are right that part of RIMM’s valuation derives from “their system support model for the enterprise users.” This part the business is booming and deserves a high valuation. Good Technologies and Microsoft exchange are its only major global competition at the moment. But it will be some time (calendar year 2010) before they can force down RIMM’s ASP per subscriber and OS unit sale (RIMM’s third business.) The push application business is growing fast enough to maintain rapid subs growth for all three players, with RIMM remaining the industry leader.

The push application/e-mail subscriber part of RIMM’s business only accounts for a minority of RIMM’s current market capitalization.

77% of RIMM’s revenues come from hardware sales. Most of RIMM’s current valuations come from (projected hardware sales * hardware gross margins.) Hardware sales have been unusually elevated recently. They will come down substantially in calendar years 2009 and 2010.

Note that RIMM doesn’t have much competition in enterprise at the moment (especially in the financial subset of enterprise.) But this will change in 2009 and 2010, even though RIMM will remain the market leader.

Much more important, however, is the fact that most of RIMM’s hardware sales are to consumer, not enterprise. And most of RIMM’s projected growth in 2009 and 2010 comes from the consumer. Here RIMM is going to encounter substantial competition and lower ASPs in calendar years 2009 and 2010.

The important issue is not competition today, but competition 1 and 2 years from now in a rapid product cycle commoditizing industry.

If we assume that RIMM’s ASPs in enterprise drop modestly in 2009 and 2010 while continuing to hold dominant market share in the enterprise space (i.e. RIMM overpowers the competition,) this is not enough to justify RIMM’s current valuation.

Most analysts are assuming rapid unit growth in consumer in their foreword projections. Note that consumers will demand far greater functionality (faster processors, greater battery life, greater memory, better applications {a ten page paper could be written about the better applications and widgets the consumer will demand}, GPS, better cameras, better quality screens) at lower prices going forward. I see Apple, Nokia, Motorola, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson, all coming out with compelling smart phones in calendar year 2009. RIMM will have to lower their gross margins to grow their unit sales volumes. I don’t think RIMM will reach consensus estimates for unit sales in the fiscal year ending Feb’2011. They will also have much lower gross margins than expected.

The market is paying a high multiple on peak cyclical earnings based on the years ending 2-09 and 2-10. The year ending 2-11 is likely to see lower EPS than the two prior years.

RIMM’s share price has limited upside based on EPS in the fiscal year ending 2-2011.
APPL represents a much more compelling value at these prices.

Anand,
Sorry to tell you that your analyse does’nt hold the road.
You forgot an important factor: THE CHINA FACT. RIMM has succeded in winning China and it’s not minor. They are targetting first the enterprise and after, their sideline, the consumers. So you have to make your homework again and change yours numbers with this important input.

Anand,
I understand that you prefer AAPL at RIMM, but you have to be honest in your analyse. Forget the patriotism, you have to recognize that Canada has the killer device. I own both AAPL and RIMM, but I’m making my money with RIMM. By the way, that’s the second time that I’m challenging you with CHINA and you seem to forget the fact…

I have to give 1 point to RIMM for ever. After receiving 2 punches, I do think that Mr. Anand is knocked out. Finally Anand was here to boost AAPL. After all, I’m giving you 2 points Mr. RIMM for ever.

Rimm for ever, Do you have a link to the “re-iterated” buy targets from UBS and Smith Barney? You make these sound as if they came after the down grade by Canacord on Friday JAn.11th. Is this so?

Does anyone know if the strong canadian dollar could negatively impact earnings?

-Rimm forever, I am more bullish than the street about the year ending Feb’09. I am at $4 EPS.
-China will be a large incremental driver of RIMM’s earnings going forward.
-The I-phone needs software upgrades to successfully target enterprise. This will happen by calender year 2009.
-RIMM will remain the market leader in enterprise. But that is not enough to justify RIMM’s valuation.
-consumer will become a lot more price sensitive going forward, although not this year.

I think the big news story this week is Mac World. Any ideas on what will be introduced?

EY, Canadian dollar strength against all currencies hurts RIMM. US dollar weakness against all currencies is mixed for RIMM. Its profits outside North America benefit, while US profits shrink.

It is straight forward to model the currency affects.

RIMM $180 this year
- China China China
- New Products (2 yr cycle new phones)
- This company’s sales and earnings doubles each year not just the stock price
- Based on PE it’s cheaper now than it was last year
- I loved AAPL when it was 50 and sold at 150, I see more upside in RIMM

Heard a rumor about significant layoffs at Cerner on Monday but can’t confirm.

Anand,
You are more bullish than the street about RIMM, but you prefer AAPL ??? Do you have a problem ? I suppose that when you go in an italian restaurant, you like the pizza, but you order a spaghetti !!!OKeyyyyyyy
You talk about RIMM’s valuation, which has a P/E of 51…What do you think about the solars stocks, which, even after their decline, have still a P/E of 558 for SPWR, 164 for FSLR, 70 for SOLF, 56 for JASO, etc, and, for some of them, don’t make any money ?
I guess that in your mind, they are more attractive than RIMM…
Finally,I suspect you to be Lance (you know the guy with the feeble mind that Ray has so well described)
AM I right ?

Based on the chart, there isn’t any support for RIMM below 95 until 80. Watch out below!

It looks like China Mobile could launch the Blackberry this month ! Be ready for the rebound.:)

Anand,
Do you understand, now today, what I told you about RIMM’S valuation vs Solars stocks, 2 days ago ?

We’re seeing a “reversal” in the price of RIMM vs AAPL…
Remember my formula: RIMM’S target is AAPL + $$$$$$$$$

RIMM for ever, I must thank you. Because of you I made a lot of money in shorting solar stocks in the last 2 days. You got a good feeling !
Other feelings ?

The trader,
I’M happy for you and I hope you still shorted solars today. For other feelings, stay tuned and especially for RIMM (NOT to short by the way…)

you guys forgot about of russia rimm will lanch blckberry this year.when china news comes it will go easy 125,00

news dosnt even matter this whole market is a casino