Prudential: More Communications M&A to Follow Avaya
In the wake of the $17.50 a share bid for corporate phone equipment maker Avaya (AV), announced last night, Prudential Securities analyst Inder Singh says more buyouts are likely in the corporate communications equipment market, which has seen less M&A activity than has the group of companies making equipment for phone companies. The $17.50 payout is a 33% premium to Avaya’s average closing price — not bad.
Says Singh:
Consolidation swept through the larger telco equipment vendors last year, but we have seen relatively little consolidation among the enterprise focused names. Although the current AV acquisition does not address the consolidation issue, we wouldn’t be surprised to see more M&A activity in this space.
So who could be next on the list? Well, I’m glad you asked, because I happen to hold in my hands the first quarter report from market research firm Dell’Oro Group for what’s known an Internet Protocol PBX, which is a fancy name for a corporate phone switch. In the first quarter, Avaya was third in market share behind Cisco Systems (CSCO), with Nortel Networks (NT) a distant second to Cisco and Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) taking fourth place after Avaya, followed by Siemens AG (SIE) and NEC (NIPNY). Both Alcatel-Lucent and Nortel could use some help these days, with both seeing declines in market share quarter-over-quarter, in units, ALU dropping 15% and Nortel dropping 6%.
The stocks today are doing:
- Avaya shares are up 2% at $17.06;
- Cisco shares are up a quarter percent at $27.07;
- Alcatel-Lucent shares are up fractionally at $13.62;
- Nortel shares are down a third of a percent at $26.22;
- NEC shares are down almost 1% at $5.10;
- Siemens shares are off nearly 2% at $132.60.
Alcatel-Lucent shares are off 4% this year while Nortel shares are down about 2% for the year.

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written from Palo Alto, California by long-time Barron's West Coast Editor Eric J. Savitz. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields.